Because the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of seasonal predictability across the United States, NOAA devotes considerable effort into monitoring ENSO and producing skillful seasonal ENSO outlooks.
In this talk, I will briefly explain why seasonal ENSO outlooks matter before walking through how NOAA monitors and predicts ENSO. I’ll highlight the observations that are critical for both monitoring and prediction, the key metrics used to define ENSO events, and the model guidance that NOAA forecasters rely on. I’ll also describe the process of bringing these pieces together to produce the seasonal outlook and conclude by describing how these ENSO outlooks can provide value for society.
Presenter
Dr. Nathaniel Johnson
Dr. Nathaniel "Nat" Johnson is a meteorologist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey. A self-described “weather weenie” from a young age, Nat has always been interested in pushing the frontiers of weather and climate prediction. He received his Ph.D. in Meteorology from Penn State University and then spent several years completing his postdoctoral research at the University of Hawaii and the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Now as a scientist at GFDL, Nat’s research focuses on subseasonal-to-seasonal climate variability, predictability and prediction, especially in connection with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition to his research, which has resulted in more than 100 authored or co-authored journal articles, Nat has served as a member of the NOAA ENSO forecast team, was a regular contributor to the NOAA Climate.gov ENSO Blog, and serves on several national and international committees focused on improving climate predictions.
Presentation
Want more NEDTalks?
This October, join us for three Friday NOAA Environmental Data (NED) Talks at noon exploring the past, present and potential future of El Niño. We’ll look at historical events, how NOAA monitors ENSO, and what current data can tell us about potential impacts on weather, drought and ecosystems.