Great Lakes Seasonal Outlook Winter 2010-2011

Recent photos of the ice-covered Cleveland Harbor West Pierhead Lighthouse were widely distributed by the media. The first photo was taken by Petty Officer 2nd Class Lauren Jorgensen, U.S. Coast Guard, on Tuesday, Dec. 14. Photo Credit: George Payamgis.

"La Nina conditions are now occurring in the Pacific Ocean. Typically, La Nina brings colder temperatures over the Great Lakes and more than normal ice conditions." This is one of the statements in the Great Lakes Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2010-2011. This Dec. 14 photo of the iced Cleveland Harbor West Pierhead Lighthouse on Lake Erie certainly supports the above statement.

However, the Outlook also states that "temperatures were milder than normal over the Great Lakes during the last 4 La Nina (1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2007-2008)" and "near normal temperatures are forecast for the month of December." "This season has gotten off to a quick start thanks to cooler than normal air temperatures across the lakes. With the Climate Prediction Center suggesting below normal temperatures likely over the next three months, we may be looking at a more typical La Nina year, with more severe ice conditions than normal," states the National Ice Center's (NIC's) Great Lakes Analyst, Brian Jackson.

NIC and the Canadian Ice Service are part of the North American Ice Service, and have jointly produced the yearly Outlooks online since 2004. The 2010 edition became public on December 2, 2010. The Outlook provides advanced notification for economic, lakeshore, and shipping interests throughout the Great Lakes. NIC is operated by staff from NOAA, the U. S. Navy, and the U.S. Coast Guard. The Center's